THE DEUCE DESK

Follow the TourMatchPoint AnalyticsSet StealerBest Bets Today
How to use this site

Today’s Board shows live singles matches for the selected tournament. Pick an event from the dropdown, then toggle UK or US bookmakers to see prices from your shops.

Match Winner is the best price for a player to win. Live matches jump to the top of the list.

The Top Value Pick is the model’s strongest selection; the Value Underdog is a higher-priced player with a positive model edge. Select any price to compare it with the market.

Use Follow the Tour for the ATP/WTA calendar and map.

Around the Grounds

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Today's Board ·

All times BST0 books

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Best Bets Today

Model v market
  • Top Value PickNo pick yet

    No Top Value Pick today — no favourite on the board is priced generously enough, so this one’s a pass.

  • Value UnderdogNo pick yet

    No Value Underdog today — no outsider on the board is priced generously enough, so this one’s a pass.

Value = model win chance × best available price − 1. Refreshes with the board.

What drives the picks — model weights

How much each factor moves a player's win chance, from an even 50%, when they hold a typical edge over their opponent. Men's and women's weights are tuned separately on settled picks.

FactorMen'sWomen's
Serve + return points5 pts better+10.3%was +5.0+0.3%was +5.0
World rankingranked half as high+4.3%was +7.7+1.3%was +7.7
Surface record15% better on court+0.0%was +7.4+5.5%was +7.4
Recent form3 more wins in 10+12.5%was +8.9+0.0%was +8.9
Head-to-head2-0 up+10.8%was +7.4+0.1%was +7.4
Rest / rusttired v fresh+0.1%was +3.7+2.7%was +3.7

The stats model is then blended with bookmaker odds, up to 45% stats.

Track record · £1 level stakes

Full history

Your record will begin when today’s Top Value Pick and Value Underdog are available. Each is tracked at £1.

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