BEST BETS TODAY

← Return to the board

The model's Top Value Pick and Value Underdog for today's card. Every qualifying match is recorded as its own pick, tracked at £1 level stakes, and settled results build the ROI record below.

Best Bets Today

Model v market
  • Top Value PickNo pick yet

    No Top Value Pick today — no favourite on the board is priced generously enough, so this one’s a pass.

  • Value UnderdogNo pick yet

    No Value Underdog today — no outsider on the board is priced generously enough, so this one’s a pass.

Value = model win chance × best available price − 1. Refreshes with the board.

What drives the picks — model weights

How much each factor moves a player's win chance, from an even 50%, when they hold a typical edge over their opponent. Men's and women's weights are tuned separately on settled picks.

FactorMen'sWomen's
Serve + return points5 pts better+10.3%was +5.0+0.3%was +5.0
World rankingranked half as high+4.3%was +7.7+1.3%was +7.7
Surface record15% better on court+0.0%was +7.4+5.5%was +7.4
Recent form3 more wins in 10+12.5%was +8.9+0.0%was +8.9
Head-to-head2-0 up+10.8%was +7.4+0.1%was +7.4
Rest / rusttired v fresh+0.1%was +3.7+2.7%was +3.7

The stats model is then blended with bookmaker odds, up to 45% stats.

Track record · £1 level stakes

Full history

Your record will begin when today’s Top Value Pick and Value Underdog are available. Each is tracked at £1.